Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Dozier's Early Success

The #1 reason I'm still watching the Twins' games is Brian Dozier. I love watching him at shortstop and I love watching him hit. He brings a ton of energy to the game and he's one of the very few bright spots of the Twins' future above A-ball. Through 44 plate appearances he's hitting .286/.318/.476 a couple doubles and a couple homers. Very impressive for a 25 year-old in his major league stint looking to take over as the long-term shortstop.

But the number that's important here isn't the homers or average, it's the plate appearances. 44 PA's is a very small sample size. As an example, I'll remind you of Chris Parmelee's smashing September last season, .355/.443/.592 and 4 home runs in 88 plate appearances. As a caution I'll remind you of Parmelee's next 92 plate appearances this season, .179/.250/.262. Just about anything can happen in small sample sizes like these, a mediocre hitter can look great or downright awful. Snap judgements shouldn't be made just given these statistics.

Dozier won't be this player forever, he could be even better or he could be worse. As a young player, there are going to be impressive stretches such as these first 10 games and their will be times we will all be calling for him to go back to AAA. For now, dream on the kid, enjoy watching him, but don't be shocked if he has a Parmeleean fall back to the earth.

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