Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Predicting the Top Prospect Lists

I'll start off with the disclaimer that I know little about scouting and this almost entirely based off reading way too many box scores and what I see on sites like Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America and Twitter. I'm doing this purely for fun and it's complete speculation.

So what I'm going to do here is post what I predict the various Twins top prospect lists will look like before they come out. FanGraphs is already releasing theirs and BP and BA will roll out over the fall and winter months.

Kennys Vargas (who I would have ranked between Rogers and Thorpe), Danny Santana (between Meyer and Gordon), Josmil Pinto (between Polanco and May) exhausted their prospect eligibility this year. We'll get an idea for their standing on BP's list as they usually include players 25 and younger on a separate list (depending on the cutoff, Pinto may not be eligible). Trevor May will still be eligible unless he somehow pitches 11 innings in his next/last start.

1. Byron Buxton - Hard to move him down as he's still the biggest talent in the entire minor leagues. We'll get to learn more about how he's recovering in the Arizona Fall League but I don't see much of any chance he falls from the #1 prospect in this system.

2. Miguel Sano - Much the same story as Buxton, however, I think he could have been jumped by a very good year from one of the other guys. That said, nobody made that kind of statement this season, leaving Sano at #2.

3. Jose Berrios - Berrios had the best season of any Twins minor leaguer, jumping from Hi-A to starting in the playoffs in AAA. His total pitching line is 25 starts 140 IP 140K/38BB 2.76 ERA. Not bad for a 20 year old in the high minors. He'll likely spend most of next year in AAA Rochester building up his innings total.

4. Kohl Stewart - Stewart put up a 2.59 ERA in 87 innings in his full-season debut. And that's without the use of his best pitch (slider, which the Twins are limiting). He could be on the  Berrios path for 2015.

5. Alex Meyer - I struggled moving him below Stewart (Berrios seemed like an easy call), but his control regressed as he walked nearly a batter every 2 innings. We know he can dominate a lineup, but he beats himself far too often. I still have hope that he can be a frontline guy, but I'm thinking more and more that chance is shrinking.

6. Nick Gordon - The Twins' first round draft pick started off great in rookie ball, leading Elizabethton in hits en route to a .294/.333/.366 until he broke his finger. He was a top 5 draft pick and has looked good, but his ranking will all depend on how the scouts review defense and bat speed, the type of things we can't find in a box score. I, personally, would have him behind Polanco, but this being my prediction list, I'll slot him just ahead.

7. Jorge Polanco - Jorge is one of my favorite prospects on the Twins, anyone who follows us on Twitter knows that much. He's a 20 year old who's already hit well in AA and can play anywhere in the infield. He's got some pop for a middle infielder as well and could turn into the second baseman we hoped Eddie Rosario would be.

8. Trevor May - Don't think of this as an overreaction to his MLB starts this season. He's clearly nervous and it would be unfair to make too strong a judgement of his slow adjustment to the bigs. I still believe he could be a middle of the rotation guy, I just like the 1-7 guys more than him. He pitched plenty well in AAA to merit at least #8 ranking - which, remember, would be top 3 or 4 in most organizations.

9. Taylor Rogers - This is the biggest jump in the Twins system. Rogers added a few ticks to his fastball and crushed AA. Bits from scouts over the past six month have gushed about the Kentucky left-hander. I wouldn't be completely shocked if one of the lists from BP, BA or Fangraphs had him in their top 6 ahead of May and Polanco.

10. Lewis Thorpe - This is the lefty that everyone dreams on. Scouts have loved him since he signed in 2012 out of Australia. He started out slow in Cedar Rapids but finished as one of their top pitchers. He could also have some helium and move into the top 6 or so of some lists.

11. Stephen Gonsalves - I'm going to 11 just to include Gonsalves. He seems like the type of guy scouts might really love. He's a big, young lefty who struck out 44 in 36.2 IP in his full-season debut while walking just 11. It will be very interesting to see what the scouts who saw him over the year say about him.

A few others I considered: Eddie Rosario (perhaps I'm being too reactionary with Eddie, I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the 9-11 range), Travis Harrison, Adam Walker, Amaurys Minier, Nick Burdi and Zack Jones.

I would guess there are 7 top 100 prospects in all of baseball on the list, with the top 10 of these guys in consideration.

Also interesting to note that there are only four hitters on the whole list. Another reason the Twins don't really have to worry about paying for pitching this winter.

Let us know if we missed or under/overrated anyone @Pitchers_Duel on twitter!

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Twins Free Agent Targets

2015 is when the Twins are going to start their turnaround. The cream of the prospect crop is reaching the majors - Arcia, Santana, Vargas, Pinto, Hicks, Buxton, Sano, Gibson, May, Meyer and Berrios. There are some skilled veterans who aren't yet past their expiration date - Mauer, Dozier, Plouffe, Suzuki, Perkins, Hughes and (hopefully) Nolasco. Combining these two groups will make for the core of the next great Twins team. At least, that's what they tell us.

In reality, the Twins struggled to improve as much as they may have liked in 2014. The pitching improved, but is still among the worst in the league. The lineup was actually very good, but still has some gaping holes. And at the end of the day, the team is going to need some help to make it out of the cellar of the American League.

The front office will be looking at a payroll of under $70 million for 2015 and have indicated that they intend to spend. The positions the Twins will attack, according to what I've read online and the general feel around the Twittersphere, are starting pitching and outfield. Let's take a look at some guys they will likely kick the tires on, starting with pitchers:

Current state:
Phil Hughes is the only pitcher to earn a guaranteed spot in the rotation next year. Ricky Nolasco will almost certainly be given every opportunity to pitch as he enters his second out of five years under contract. Kyle Gibson and Tommy Milone will be on the team, but haven't locked down a rotation spot necessarily. Mike Pelfrey is also slated to make $5.5 million next year and could be a factor at the back end of the rotation. And lastly, Trevor May, Alex Meyer and Jose Berrios are all extremely talented guys who pitched in AAA last season and should get a shot at some point in 2015. Not to mention a slew of extra lefties who could be serviceable, Kris Johnson, Logan Darnell and Sean Gilmartin.

What the Twins should look for:
Given this outlook, rotation spots are going to be difficult to earn next season. However, most of the candidates are young, injury-prone, unproven, not that good or some combination of those. So, that combo of uncertainty plus money to spend plus a need to improve the squad means that the Twins will likely invest in a pitcher. The situation also suggests that the Twins should invest in a certain type of pitcher. There's no need to sign an inning's eater type, like Correia, Nolasco or Pelfrey. They need a guy to pair with Hughes at the front of the rotation. However, it's unlikely they'll be able to draw one of the top pitchers on the market like Jon Lester, James Shields or Max Scherzer. That restricts them to a certain second-tier type with the upside to lead a rotation. This is our prototype.

Who fits the mold:
Josh Beckett -- I'm starting out with the most ridiculous suggestion. Beckett has the talent to be one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball but is inconsistent and often injured. Perhaps the Twins could strike at the right time and get next year's version of Phil Hughes.

Francisco Liriano -- A reunion with this strikeout artist would make sense as the Twins are lacking in frontline left-handed pitching and should be reasonably priced because of his injury history.

Ervin Santana -- Over the past 5 seasons, he's averaged 205 innings and 3.84 ERA. He's been home run prone and may resemble Nolasco too closely, but he has front-line potential as he showed with the Royals in 2013.

James Shields, Jon Lester and Max Scherzer -- Pipe dream of most Twins fans. I would hope they stay away from dishing out huge money on any of these guys who would help, but have their best years behind them and would be a financial drag for years to come.


Current state:
Oswaldo Arcia has right field on lock for the foreseeable future. Beyond that, there's nothing set in stone for next season. Center field could be occupied by Jordan Schafer or Aaron Hicks until Byron Buxton is ready - but we really aren't sure how long that will take. Left field could also be handled by Schafer, Hicks, Chris Parmelee or a prospect such as Eddie Rosario. Clearly, at least one outfielder is very much needed at least for 2015 and possibly beyond.

What the Twins should look for:
I've read they want a slugger. A big right-handed bat, like another Willingham or Cuddyer. This type of player would fit nicely in left field and the middle of the lineup. Howeveooking at the current construction of the roster and assuming Buxton isn't ready opening day, it's pretty clear they need a guy to man centerfield at least adequately. I would expect this to be where they spend most of their money, with only Cuban Yasmani Tomas probably out of play, as he's expected to make $75 million.

Who fits the mold:
Nelson Cruz -- If the Twins get their dream to come true, they'll end up Cruz. He can be slotted into left field and the #4 slot in the lineup between Mauer and Arcia. Not to mention the damage that right-handed sluggers have done in Minnesota. His gaudy home run total this season might drive up his price while his mediocre plate discipline and injury history tell us more about his actual value. Signing Cruz would almost certainly be an overpay but he is a good fit.

Colby Rasmus -- His career slash line of .246/.313/.438 isn't attractive. But it's excusable when you consider that he plays a solid centerfield, has thunder in his bat and is a solid-average baserunner. He might carry a higher price tag than some others but he also has more upside. He'd fit well on the Twins on a two year deal, starting 2014 as the centerfielder and then providing huge value off the bench once Buxton reaches the majors or taking over left field.

Emilio Bonifacio -- Emilio's triple slash line as journeyman isn't too outstanding .264/.320/.343. But he provides great flexibility in that he could play pretty much any position on the field. Flexibility would be very helpful if team officials think Buxton will be ready early on in the season and could use Bonifacio as a backup at nearly every other position.

So it appears Byron Buxton is the key to the puzzle. If the Twins want him to spend an entire season between AA and AAA getting reps, Colby Rasmus makes the most sense, potentially sharing the outfield with Hicks or Schafer. If Buxton could be ready early in the season, Bonifacio would be an excellent complementary piece and provide flexibility. Nelson Cruz would fit in left field regardless of what's going on in centerfield as Eddie Rosario looks less and less like a big piece of the future in left field. The Cruz scenario is more related to the Pohlad's grip on the purse strings.

I'd love to hear what you guys think about the off-season as well - any trade targets? Do they need bullpen help? How about leaving Santana in the outfield and signing JJ Hardy back? Tweet us @Pitchers_Duel or leave a comment!

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Twins Prospects in the Arizona Fall League

With opening day just a few weeks away for the Arizona Fall League, Pitchers’ Duel gives a quick look at all seven Minnesota Twins prospects who will be making their way to the deserts of Arizona.  Some will be looking to extend an already solid 2014 campaign while others are looking to make up at bats and innings due to missed time.  The scouting reports are compiled from Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.  For the players’ rankings, the BP ranking is from Jason Parks’ preseason rankings.  MLB Pipeline updates their rankings as deals are made and are current.  The Baseball America rankings are from their preseason reports.

Jason Adam (RHP) 
6’4”  225 lbs

Acquired by the Twins from the Royals in exchange for outfielder Josh Willingham, Adam has split time between AA with the Twins and Royals and pitched eight games (all in relief) at the AAA level for Kansas City.  Between those three stops, he had a 4.70 ERA in 29 games (19 starts).  He totaled 120.2 innings and struck out 103 and walked just 36.  Jason Parks (formerly of Baseball Prospectus and now a scout for the Chicago Cubs) said his ultimate role is a number four starter at best or a long reliever out of the pen.  His fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s with an above-average breaking pitch and occasional change up.

2014 Prospect Rankings:
Baseball Prospectus: #9 (Royals)
MLB Pipeline: NA
Baseball America: #9