2015 Minnesota Twins Top 10 Prospects

Last week I made a composite list of the Arizona Diamondbacks top 10 prospects using the five most popular prospects rankings.  Just as a refresher, here is a list of the sources used:

1. Baseball Prospectus (BP)
2. FanGraphs (FG)
3. MLB Pipeline (Pipeline)
4. Baseball America (BA)
5. Keith Law of EPSN (Law)

With the Twins there are some notable names left off the composite top 10 which speaks to how deep the Twins' system is and how the future of the organization is looking up.

A quick reminder on the point system.  A number one ranking will give a player 10 points, a number two ranking is worth nine points and so on.  There aren't any scouting reports included as I think it is worth finding these rankings on the respective websites to explore and learn more about the future of the Twins organization.

Minnesota Twins Top 10 Prospects

1. Byron Buxton, OF - 50 points
BP=1; FG=1; Pipeline=1; BA=1; Law=1

2. Miguel Sano, 3B - 45 points
BP=2; FG=2; Pipeline=2; BA=2; Law=2

3. Alex Meyer, RHP - 35 points
BP=3; FG=6; Pipeline= 3; BA= 5; Law=3

4. Jose Berrios, RHP - 34 points
BP=5; FG=3; Pipeline=4; BA=3; Law=6

5. Kohl Stewart, RHP - 31 points
BP=4; FG=5; Pipeline=6; BA=4; Law=5

6. Nick Gordon, SS - 30 points
BP=6; FG=4; Pipeline=5; BA=6; Law=4

7. Jorge Polanco, SS - 14 points
BP=9; FG=7; Pipeline=7; BA=8; Law=9

8. Lewis Thorpe, LHP - 12 points
BP=7; FG=8; Pipeline=10; BA=NA; Law=7

9. Nick Burdi, RHP - 11 points
BP=8; FG=10; Pipeline=8; BA=7; Law=NA

10. Eddie Rosario, 2B/OF - 6 points
BP=NA; FG=NA; Pipeline=9; BA=10; Law=8

Also receiving votes: Stephen Gonsalves, Trevor May and Amaurys Minier

AFL Notes October 22-25, 2014

AFL Notes October 22-25, 2014

It’s been six years since my last trip to the desert to watch the Arizona Fall League so when I had the chance to finally make it down I couldn’t resist.  I was able to watch parts or all of four games and see many talented players who will be Major League contributors.  I didn’t prepare ahead of time to take great notes on players nor was I able to really evaluate many players because I was mainly focused on a select few I found intriguing.  Here are the those notes.

October 22

When I got to the park with my uncle and saw that neither Byron Buxton nor Eddie Rosario were in the lineup I rather zoned out and just enjoyed watching high caliber baseball because there were no players I was dying to see.  One player who stood out on the Salt River Rafters was the first guy out of the bullpen, Brian Ellington.  

Brian Ellington (Marlins): His frame stands out as a lanky right hander standing 6’ 4” and 200 pounds.  Then you see his first pitch and the radar gun says 97.  He had a bit of an issue throwing strikes as the inning got started by walking the leadoff hitter and throwing balls on six of his first seven pitches but after that he settled down.  He had a long, loose arm that acted as a powerful whip to unleash upper 90’s heaters.  He also threw a slider that was in the upper 80’s and some downward tilt and when he stayed on top of the pitch, it looked like something that would generate many swing and misses.

October 23

This was the game I was most excited about.  First, I was able to see the beautiful Salt River Fields at Talking Stick.  The players are very spoiled being able to call that park home.  For a spring training base, it really doesn’t get any better.  

Second, the Rafters’ lineup was filled with players I was excited to see.

Byron Buxton (Twins): Coming off two major injuries I expected to see a Buxton who didn’t look like he was in midseason shape and that’s what I got.  His timing looked a little off but what I saw was a balanced swing that showed his quick hands.  He did lunge for pitches on the outer half of the plate instead of letting them travel a little more but that is just a sign of rust.  One ball he lunged for with two strikes was a slow grounder to short and he showed the speed that leaves scouts drooling as he put pressure on the shortstop who bobbled the ball and even if he had fielded it cleanly would not have had a chance to throw him out.  He did get a fastball in on his hands that he was able to fist into short center for another base hit.  He would come around to score and it was apparent how quick he is on the bases.  Later in the game there was a line drive into left center that looked like a base hit off the bat and he glided over to the baseball and caught it on the run to make it look like a routine play.

Predicting the Top Prospect Lists

I'll start off with the disclaimer that I know little about scouting and this almost entirely based off reading way too many box scores and what I see on sites like Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America and Twitter. I'm doing this purely for fun and it's complete speculation.

So what I'm going to do here is post what I predict the various Twins top prospect lists will look like before they come out. FanGraphs is already releasing theirs and BP and BA will roll out over the fall and winter months.

Kennys Vargas (who I would have ranked between Rogers and Thorpe), Danny Santana (between Meyer and Gordon), Josmil Pinto (between Polanco and May) exhausted their prospect eligibility this year. We'll get an idea for their standing on BP's list as they usually include players 25 and younger on a separate list (depending on the cutoff, Pinto may not be eligible). Trevor May will still be eligible unless he somehow pitches 11 innings in his next/last start.

1. Byron Buxton - Hard to move him down as he's still the biggest talent in the entire minor leagues. We'll get to learn more about how he's recovering in the Arizona Fall League but I don't see much of any chance he falls from the #1 prospect in this system.

2. Miguel Sano - Much the same story as Buxton, however, I think he could have been jumped by a very good year from one of the other guys. That said, nobody made that kind of statement this season, leaving Sano at #2.

3. Jose Berrios - Berrios had the best season of any Twins minor leaguer, jumping from Hi-A to starting in the playoffs in AAA. His total pitching line is 25 starts 140 IP 140K/38BB 2.76 ERA. Not bad for a 20 year old in the high minors. He'll likely spend most of next year in AAA Rochester building up his innings total.

4. Kohl Stewart - Stewart put up a 2.59 ERA in 87 innings in his full-season debut. And that's without the use of his best pitch (slider, which the Twins are limiting). He could be on the  Berrios path for 2015.

5. Alex Meyer - I struggled moving him below Stewart (Berrios seemed like an easy call), but his control regressed as he walked nearly a batter every 2 innings. We know he can dominate a lineup, but he beats himself far too often. I still have hope that he can be a frontline guy, but I'm thinking more and more that chance is shrinking.

6. Nick Gordon - The Twins' first round draft pick started off great in rookie ball, leading Elizabethton in hits en route to a .294/.333/.366 until he broke his finger. He was a top 5 draft pick and has looked good, but his ranking will all depend on how the scouts review defense and bat speed, the type of things we can't find in a box score. I, personally, would have him behind Polanco, but this being my prediction list, I'll slot him just ahead.

7. Jorge Polanco - Jorge is one of my favorite prospects on the Twins, anyone who follows us on Twitter knows that much. He's a 20 year old who's already hit well in AA and can play anywhere in the infield. He's got some pop for a middle infielder as well and could turn into the second baseman we hoped Eddie Rosario would be.

8. Trevor May - Don't think of this as an overreaction to his MLB starts this season. He's clearly nervous and it would be unfair to make too strong a judgement of his slow adjustment to the bigs. I still believe he could be a middle of the rotation guy, I just like the 1-7 guys more than him. He pitched plenty well in AAA to merit at least #8 ranking - which, remember, would be top 3 or 4 in most organizations.

9. Taylor Rogers - This is the biggest jump in the Twins system. Rogers added a few ticks to his fastball and crushed AA. Bits from scouts over the past six month have gushed about the Kentucky left-hander. I wouldn't be completely shocked if one of the lists from BP, BA or Fangraphs had him in their top 6 ahead of May and Polanco.

10. Lewis Thorpe - This is the lefty that everyone dreams on. Scouts have loved him since he signed in 2012 out of Australia. He started out slow in Cedar Rapids but finished as one of their top pitchers. He could also have some helium and move into the top 6 or so of some lists.

11. Stephen Gonsalves - I'm going to 11 just to include Gonsalves. He seems like the type of guy scouts might really love. He's a big, young lefty who struck out 44 in 36.2 IP in his full-season debut while walking just 11. It will be very interesting to see what the scouts who saw him over the year say about him.

A few others I considered: Eddie Rosario (perhaps I'm being too reactionary with Eddie, I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the 9-11 range), Travis Harrison, Adam Walker, Amaurys Minier, Nick Burdi and Zack Jones.

I would guess there are 7 top 100 prospects in all of baseball on the list, with the top 10 of these guys in consideration.

Also interesting to note that there are only four hitters on the whole list. Another reason the Twins don't really have to worry about paying for pitching this winter.

Let us know if we missed or under/overrated anyone @Pitchers_Duel on twitter!

Twins Prospects in the Arizona Fall League

With opening day just a few weeks away for the Arizona Fall League, Pitchers’ Duel gives a quick look at all seven Minnesota Twins prospects who will be making their way to the deserts of Arizona.  Some will be looking to extend an already solid 2014 campaign while others are looking to make up at bats and innings due to missed time.  The scouting reports are compiled from Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.  For the players’ rankings, the BP ranking is from Jason Parks’ preseason rankings.  MLB Pipeline updates their rankings as deals are made and are current.  The Baseball America rankings are from their preseason reports.

Jason Adam (RHP) 

6’4”  225 lbs

Acquired by the Twins from the Royals in exchange for outfielder Josh Willingham, Adam has split time between AA with the Twins and Royals and pitched eight games (all in relief) at the AAA level for Kansas City.  Between those three stops, he had a 4.70 ERA in 29 games (19 starts).  He totaled 120.2 innings and struck out 103 and walked just 36.  Jason Parks (formerly of Baseball Prospectus and now a scout for the Chicago Cubs) said his ultimate role is a number four starter at best or a long reliever out of the pen.  His fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s with an above-average breaking pitch and occasional change up.

2014 Prospect Rankings:

Baseball Prospectus: #9 (Royals)

MLB Pipeline: NA

Baseball America: #9