It's Papa Grande Time

The role of closer is something that is debated heavily in baseball circles.  The “stats nerds” claim the best bullpen arm should be the guy first out of the pen to pitch in the highest leverage situation and the “traditional” (aka Tony LaRussa) type, believe teams need a pitcher to come in to start the ninth inning when their team is winning by three runs or less.

Whatever your personal belief, you can’t deny that watching some guys close out games is exciting.  Seeing Jonathan Papelbon’s mean stare, Mariano Rivera’s calm demeanor or Fernando Rodney’s bow and arrow makes the game that much more fun to watch.

Carlos Gomez Extension

Earlier Wednesday, news came out that Carlos Gomez signed a four year, $28.3 million deal to stay in Milwaukee. Andy and Nils disagree on the merits of the deal. Here ya go:

Andy’s take:

Earlier today I tweeted that I am not a fan of the Carlos Gomez signing.  He will make $28.3 million through the 2016 season.  

The reason I think Car-Go is not worthy of this extension is because he’s likely to regress from the .260/.305/.463 line he showed in 2012 (along with 19 home runs).  In 2012 he had a 2.0 WARP and BP projects him to have a 1.6 in 2013.

The tools are there.  They always have been.  But the lack of plate discipline he shows will never result in a high OBP and it doesn’t help with his grip-and-rip approach.  Swinging at so many balls out of the zone won’t lead to a lot of good contact which is probable cause for BP to predict that he will hit for a .245 average.  

The Brewers have a less-than-stellar rotation after Yovani Gallardo and nobody in the minors that standout as a future top-of-the-rotation arm.  They did draft Jed Bradley and Taylor Jungmann in the first round of the draft in 2011 but they are both a couple of years away from MLB production.

This money could have been saved (as I don’t believe they will be contenders in the NL Central this season) for a future free agent (as long as it isn’t another Jeff Suppan or Randy Wolf) or as extra money if they make a deal for a pitcher.

Nils take:

My initial reaction to today's Carlos Gomez extension was that it was a bad deal. Four years for a guy who doesn't hit or walk and is a massive headache for Brewers' fans? Seems excessive; I mean, he's not terrible but there are plenty of center fielders who can't hit that are available for much less.

However, once you look past what he can't do, this deal actually makes a lot of sense. Starting with Gomez' largest asset (there had to be a better way to phrase that...) - he's one of the premier defensive center fielders in the league. He's always had the tools - tremendous range and a huge arm - but regularly took the worst possible routes and sailed the ball over the cutoff man. Well, by his sixth season in the majors, he's a much more refined product than before: finally parlaying those tools into skills. John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible, ranks Gomez as one of the best five center fielders of the last decade and attributes him roughly ten runs per season. At about $7 million a year, the Brewers will be paying for slightly under two wins per season. Ten runs are generally equated to one win, so half of their investment is taken care of by just one aspect of his game. Granted, as players age their defense diminishes. But being 27-31 for the contract, this shouldn't be a significant problem.

A legitimate issue relates to his bat. He'll never be the .300 hitter we love to see out of speedy guys. But with that said, he's not the .229 hitter that Twins fans saw in 2009. I would peg his future batting averages in the .250-.265 range. His strikeout rate, 21.7% last season, isn't pretty but it's acceptable. Especially for a guy with his speed who should be able make the most out of the balls he puts in play. For example, last year's babip of .296 (that led to a .260 batting average) is completely reasonable to expect going forward. When compared with the league's mean batting average of .255, that actually looks pretty good. Gomez rarely walks, leading to a subpar on base average. But nobody's perfect and he should be counted on as more of a bottom of the order spark more than a top of the order table setter.  Gomez also has the power to pop out 50+ extra base hits and wreak havoc on the base paths; a very solid secondary skill set. That being said, he's not a 20 homer guy like we saw in 2012. More likely he'll hit 30 doubles, a dozen triples and a dozen homer runs.

All that was a barely coherent attempt to paint a picture of Gomez diverse, unconventional (the only comparison I can make is Peter Bourjos) skill set. I believe he will be worth the $28 million investment and in the end the Brew Crew will look smart for making it.

Side note: Gomez and Nori Aoki make up one of the most underrated outfield duo in the league. Neither has a skill that pops out to the average baseball fan (average, homers, RBI, etc.) but they can really play. It also doesn't help they're playing alongside Ryan Braun.

USA WBC Roster: Where Did They Come From?

When I thought about the U.S. World Baseball Classic roster, I thought that these must be the best players from the United States.  This must mean they all have been drafted and they were likely high picks.  

So here is a breakdown of the roster in the round the player was picked along with the team and draft year.

Day One of Spring - The Weird, The Laughable and The Laudable

As MLB.tv goes, so does my productivity. On the one hand, my productivity here at Pitcher's Duel spikes. My productivity elsewhere... not so much. And today marks the beginning of that time of year, the most wonderful time of year, in which we have live baseball to watch nearly all the time. Sidenote: Obama, step up and make this some sort of holiday, God forbid if this landed on a weekday and some poor children were stuck in school. Fascist.

For my tribute to National MLB.tv Day, I've tried my hand at some photojournalism (screencaps count, right?) from the first couple hours of LIVE baseball and I shall organize them as such -

The Weird

For you Twins fans out there, I found our former center fielder -

Good luck to Span, he's a great centerfielder and will undoubtedly be an important piece on the best team in baseball, the Nats.

And that's okay, because the Twins have a capable replacement centerfielder. He's speedy, he can hit and he... what? he's on the Phillies? F***jkdasflsjdfkaj

Well, we can look forward to 2014 Twins fans. In the meantime, at least we have it better than the Astros. Here's a drinking game, every time you recognize a name in today's Astros lineup, take a shot.

Completely sober? Lol of course you are! Even their manager hasn't heard of Nate Freiman or Marwin Gonzalez!

While they may suck, at least they look fly. I give my wholehearted approval of these semi-retro spring training jerseys.

Alright guys, Baseball Season is upon us. Let's get down and dirty.

2013 Twins Pitching Projections

Rotation: This is what the rotation could be, because as we know, we really have no idea.  There are so many new additions that it could go either way.  So in no particular order here are our predictions/projections

Twins Opening Day Lineup Predictions

Real games are starting today! Woohoo! Not for the Twins, for that we'll wait until Saturday. However, with the baseball season back in full swing (okay, half swing) Pitcher's Duel is gearing up by writing about what we know best, the Twins. Expect to see our predicted pitching rotation and bullpen either Friday or Saturday and in the meantime, here's our preview of the lineup and bench. Let us know if you agree or disagree in the comments or twitter!

Catcher

Nils’ Prediction: Joe Mauer

         Starting off with a very bold prediction. Mauer will likely take the lion’s share of innings behind the dish with Ryan Doumit, Drew Butera and later in the season Chris Herrmann splitting the remaining the portion. After a 2012 season in which Doumit proved to be an awful defender and Butera continued to be an awful hitter, backup catcher is a more significant issue than it looks.

Andy’s Prediction: Joe Mauer

         Not only does he have the greatest ass in Major League Baseball, he can swing the bat.  Hopefully this year he can catch around 90-100 games as he only caught in 74 last season.  If the Twins ever want to break even on the mega-deal he received, he needs to be behind the plate. 

Make the jump!

And with the 14th overall selection in the 2013 MLB Rule 5 Draft the Diamondbacks Select...

Well, the Rule 5 Draft really isn’t as sexy as the title of this post says.  But, some great players have been selected in the Rule 5 like Johan Santana and Josh Hamilton.  

The Arizona Diamondbacks made a really interesting move (but just one) this offseason and drafted Starling Peralta from the Chicago Cubs.  This move comes as a surprise considering if a player is selected in the Major League phase, he has to spend the entire season on the 25-man roster or else be offered back to his original organization.