Andy's 2013 WBC USA Roster

So as I sit here watching Pawn Stars on this fine Minnesotan Christmas Eve, the 2013 World Baseball Classic crossed my mind.  Only Joe Mauer and David Wright have confirmed they will participate in the third-ever WBC.

I put myself in Joe Torre's shoes and tried to think, who would I want on my 25-man roster?  I went back and looked at the roster from 2009 and tried to base my roster on that.

2012 All B-WAR Team

As we close in on the holidays, I was sitting in my basement bored to death.  So I thought I'd make a realistic roster (a team composed the way a normal team would be) and see what it would look like with the top players based on Baseball Reference WAR.  Here are the results and so you don't have to take out your calculator the team combined for a 141.7 WAR.

And now, the roster:

Lineup

C  Buster Posey-SF (7.2)

1B  Joey Votto-CIN (5.6)

2B  Robinson Cano-NYY (8.2)

3B  Miguel Cabrera-DET (6.9)

SS  Erick Aybar-LAA (4.0)

OF  Mike Trout-LAA (10.7)

OF  Andrew McCutchen-PIT (7.0)

OF  Ryan Braun-MIL (6.8)

Rotation

1. Justin Verlander-DET (7.6)

2. David Price-TB (6.4)

3. Clayton Kershaw-LAD (6.2)

4. Matt Harrison-TEX (6.2)

5. Johnny Cueto-CIN (5.8)

Bench

C Yadier Molina-STL (6.7)

INF Adrian Beltre-TEX (6.7)

INF David Wright-NYM (6.7)

OF Alex Gordon-KC (6.2)

OF Michael Bourn-ATL (6.0)

Bullpen

1. Fernando Rodney-TB (3.7)

2. Aroldis Chapman-CIN (3.6)

3. Craig Kimbrel-ATL (3.2)

4. Rafael Soriano-NYY (2.6)

5. Ryan Cook-OAK (2.6)

6. Rafael Betancourt-COL (2.6)

7. Nate Jones-CWS (2.5

Will the Diamondbacks and Rangers finally make a deal?

Yesterday, the Arizona Diamondbacks inked Cody Ross to a three-year deal worth $26 million.  The outfield in the desert was already crowded and this deal makes it more packed.  

The Diamondbacks’ payroll is now around $95 million, up from about $75.5 million in 2012 and $56.5 million in 2011, and ownership is not forcing GM Kevin Towers to make a trade to get payroll down, though this seems unlikely.

The Dodgers of the East: the New York Yankees

The Dodgers of the East: the New York Yankees

For those who are friends with Yankee fans, as I am, to you I wish my deepest apologies.  It’s difficult to win an argument with a person when they drop the famous line, “THEY’VE WON THE MOST WORLD SERIES EVER!”

Then the conversation takes a turn and the issue of money comes up, something the Yankees teams of the past had no problem spending.  

Well, now the spending has gone west.  The Dodgers have taken on every bad Red Sox contract and have signed the top free agent starting pitcher in Zach Greinke for nearly $150 million.  The Angels meanwhile have signed Albert Pujols, CJ Wilson, and Josh Hamilton in the past two off seasons

The Yankee fans who so proudly fought for their team now are saying the team is not exactly a high spender because they are trying to go under $189 million for their payroll so they can avoid the luxury tax.

Here is an conversation I had with a friend (and Yankee fan) on Twitter.

“Friend”: For everyone that says the Yankees “buy” the World Series, look at what’s going on in Los Angeles

Me: Angels still below luxury tax limit.  Yankees not quite so.  Dodgers are crazy

Me: Yankees hit with $18.9 million luxury tax, 10th straight year they’ll pay a penalty for spending...

“Friend”: I don’t care they are still gonna be better than your Twins and Dbacks

Me: That’s not the point.  Talking about what’s going on with the Angels is a Yankee move

“Friend”: You need to settle down Peter Gammons it’s A Rods fault

Me: Or Yankee management for giving into him? Nah, it’s A-Rod’s fault

*End of Conversation*

This conversation led me to do a quick, simple study about the Yankees payroll.

The first simple study is the team’s payroll and where it ranks compared to other MLB teams (in parenthesis) and how much they paid per win in the past decade. The payroll data is courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

2012: $209, 792, 900 (1); $2, 208, 346.32/win

2011: $207, 047, 964 (1); $2, 134, 515.09/win

2010: $213, 359, 389 (1); $2, 245, 888.31/win

2009: $201, 449, 189 (1); $1, 955, 817.37/win

2008: $209, 081, 577 (1); $2, 349, 231.20/win

2007: $189, 639, 045 (1); $2, 017, 436.65/win

2006: $194, 663, 045 (1); $2, 006, 835.52/win

2005: $208, 306, 817 (1); $2, 192, 703.34/win

2004: $184, 193, 950 (1); $1, 823, 702.48/win

2003: $152, 749, 814 (1); $1, 512, 374.40/win

2002: $125, 928, 583 (1); $1, 222, 607.60/win

That’s a lot per win when teams like the Rays have recently shown that being in the playoffs is possible on a much smaller budget.

The second study is a look at the richest contracts in baseball history.  Taking the top 50 contracts let’s see how many of them have been paid at some point by the Bronx Bombers.

1. Alex Rodriguez: $275, 000, 000

2. Alex Rodriguez: $252, 000, 000

6. Derek Jeter: $189, 000, 000

8. Mark Teixeira: $180, 000, 000

9. CC Sabathia: $161, 000, 000

28. CC Sabathia: $122, 000, 000

30. Jason Giambi: 121, 000, 000

42. Ichiro Suzuki: $90, 000, 000 (mostly paid by Mariners)

If there is one thing we can learn from this, the Yankees have no problem spending money.  With them deciding to cut down payroll though, could this mean the Steinbrenner family is ready to sell the team?  

Only time will tell.

On The Mets and Prospects

My Gawd. Did you see that trade? Sandy Alderson is totally ripping off the Jays! Last year he acquires Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran and this year he gets Travis d'Arnaud AND Noah Syndergaard for RA Dickey? Dayum.

Baseball Prospectus recently ranked d'Arnaud and Syndergaard as the top two prospects in Toronto's system, Baseball America ranked them #1 and #3 respectively. (As a side note, it's refreshing to be able to write # signs without the implications of a stupid hashtag.) BP sees d'Arnaud as having All-Star potential behind the plate and Syndergaard as a possible frontline starter. I'd get into what BA thinks, but it's essentially the same. And did I mention the Mets will have these two cost-controlled for six (!) seasons?

Sounds like quite a deal for a 38 year old who is essentially unprojectable and on a one year contract. In fact, almost all of Twitter would agree. Unfortunately, I'm too lazy to look up examples, but they're out there, trust me.

It sure does look like the Mets found themselves a franchise catcher to pair with David Wright, Daniel Murphy and Ruben Tejada. It also appears the Mets are building quite a rotation with Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard. Maybe a nice little run from 2015-2018?

Maybe. But don't forget:

The best laid schemes o' mice and men                                                                                             often go awry

The promise of a prospect is alluring. And when the kids work out, it's a beautiful thing (see Trout, Mike; Longoria, Evan or Posey, Buster). But that's not always the case. For every Trout there's a Brandon Wood. Prospects are far from surefire, all we are doing now is guessing the outcome.

For even more perspective, Ben Lindbergh of BP recently wrote about traded prospects and concluded that traded prospects are more likely to fall short of projection than those who an organization held onto. It makes sense, a team that drafted and developed a player should know more about that player than any other team. Therefore, if a team sees a player's stock is a bit too high in the media or scouting circles, they'd do well to trade high: to cash in on the risk.

It's still too early to say whether the Jays' made a foolish "All In" deal or if they knew something about d'Arnaud and Syndergaard the rest of us, and the Mets, did not. For what it's worth, my guess is the truth is somewhere in between.

The point is, when assessing this or any trade involving prospects, the inherent information asymmetry between the teams and us "the analysts" should lead to at least some temperance of judgement. Sure, the deal looks great for the Jays now and given what we know now, it was a great deal. However, what we do not know is what will make or break this trade.

All In

As if trading for the Marlins wasn't enough, the Toronto Blue Jays acquiring RA Dickey screams from the mountaintops "We're all in."

And why not? The Yankees are looking more and more like a senior league softball team, Boston is still in a transitory phase, Tampa hasn't done much to improve for 2013 and Baltimore is still Baltimore. The AL East is as wide open as ever.

The Blue Jays have never had trouble scoring and it won't be any trouble in 2013. The lineup features three of the top hitters at their positions in the two Jose's (Reyes and Bautista) and Edwin Encarnacion; in addition to a host of players with huge potential in Melky Cabrera, Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie. Like I said, barring injuries, offense is not a concern in Toronto; that side of the coin is covered.

(Get into the good stuff below the page break)

Twins Ink Pelfrey

In the second exciting (not exciting) move in a week, the Twins have signed right-hander Mike Pelfrey to a one year deal worth at least $4 million.

I can say this much for certain, Pelfrey is a big dude - 6'7" - and was, at one point, pretty decent. From 2008-2011 he averaged 32 starts, 196 IP, a 4.27 ERA and 1.65 K/BB ratio. He's not a strikeout pitcher, or a pinpoint control guy, but he gets groundballs (48.6 GB%) and should continue to keep the ball in the park at Target Field.

Pelfrey's arsenal, at least in the past, has consisted of a hard sinker in the mid-90's, a 4-seamer at the same speed and a slider and splitter that he throws less than 20% of the time. In 2011, his slider was primarily used as a putaway pitch versus righties and almost never against lefties.

The most important question for Pelfrey doesn't pertain to his stuff or peripherals, however, it applies to his health. After 3 starts in 2012, Pelfrey injured his elbow, requiring Tommy John Surgery. The rule of thumb is that he won't be back for a full year, meaning we can expect to see him back in May. However, with advances in medicine, it's not entirely uncommon for pitchers to return in less than 12 months; according to a tweet from Jon Heyman, the Twins expect him to be ready for opening day. Darren Wolfson tweeted a source that said an opening day return was unlikely, but it should be pretty close. If he has to miss 3 or 4 starts to begin the season, the time missed won't significantly hurt the value of the deal, but it's certainly something to keep our collective eye on.

All that said, if Pelfrey sounds like quite a gamble. That's because he is, but unlike the Correia deal, Pelfrey has real upside and could make an impact on the Twins in 2013 and beyond.

What does this mean for the Twins pitching staff? Well, it now consists of four somewhat established starters in Worley, Diamond, Correia and Pelfrey. There's still Hendriks, DeVries and Gibson who each figure to start a few games. In addition to these options, Heyman notes the Twins are still in the market another starter and Wolfson says possibly two more starters.

I like the idea; stock up on low risk guys and hope they perform well to flip for prospects or lure fans out an increasingly empty Target Field. Going forward, hopefully they can find a guy with a bit more upside than Correia and Pelfrey. But, nonetheless, it's an encouraging move and shows Terry Ryan and co. are serious about putting together a real big league pitching staff in 2013, even if it won't win any awards.