Getting That Playoff Feel: Pennant Teams

Most of the content in these electronic pages are musings about my beloved Twins. But frankly, they're not an interesting team. It's easy for me, and I'm sure many other fans of struggling franchises, to forget how enthralling it is to plunge into the ups and downs of a pennant race. I vaguely recall some of these feelings from 2010, though they've been numbed by the seasons since.

As a remedy to my growing indifference, I'm going to start on a project here at Pitcher's Duel. I've picked 3 teams with interesting rosters and historic goals to follow in the months of August, September and October and plan to write about at least one of them each day. That's seven days a week. As a douchey athlete might proclaim on twitter: No Days Off.

I'll admit, this is as much an attempt to teach myself some discipline as it is to spark my (and hopefully your) interest in the dog days. That said, I won't be posting game recaps you can find anywhere on the internet. My hope is to bring in some analysis and my access to the greatest thing ever (MLB.tv) in order to search for something essential to the races; whether it be minor roster tweaks that make all the difference or unannounced hot streaks that shake up the entire baseball landscape.

There are so many riches to be mined in these months that it would be a shame to spend in wallowing along with Joe Mauer. However, unlike Mr. Mauer, we're not chained to a sinking ship. I've jumped off the titanic and grabbed a hold of an iceberg headed straight for October! (If you can make sense of that twisted metaphor, good on you). Without further ado, I introduce my teams for the remainder.

Pittsburgh Pirates (70-47)

The Pirates aren't hard to root for. They haven't won more than 80 games since my age was counted in months, not years (1992). That little factoid has been bantered about plenty over the past 14 months, but often ignored by those of us outside of Pittsburgh is the three seasons preceding in which a young Barry Bonds led them to the NLCS three consecutive years only to lose all three games (two in game 7) and eventually their biggest star in Bonds.

This season, the Pirates are a virtual lock to win 80+ games and good bet to make the post-season. With a 70-47 record, Pittsburgh is on pace for 97 wins and possess a small lead over St. Louis (3 games back) and Cincinnati (5 GB) in the NL Central. Although, with the addition of a second wild card team, that lead is a lot more comfortable than it might look: the next challenger for their playoff spot is Arizona at 59-57.

So Pittsburgh has put themselves in position to make the playoffs barring any all-time collapses. But how did they get here?

Pitching and defense. Basically, GM Neil Huntington's gamble on AJ Burnett and Francisco Liriano came up snake-eyes as they both have been absolutely dominant, they're getting insane (and wholly unsustainable) work from Jeff Locke and shutdown work from a brilliant bullpen. Not to mention the mid-season infusion of former No. 1 overall pick Gerrit Cole firing 98 mph bullets in the middle of the rotation.

Going forward, it'll be Burnett, Liriano, Cole and pray for rain. Locke, of the 2.43 ERA, is bound to regress to his mediocre self, but should be able to show up and give his team a chance every fifth day, as should Charlie Morton. Wandy Rodriguez may return from a forearm injury in early September and could be an upgrade as a fourth starter entering the playoffs. In addition, highly regarded prospects Jameson Taillon and Stolmy Pimentel wait in the wings in AAA.

The defense has been anchored up the middle by an elite catcher and supplemented by good athletes filling out the rest of the diamond. Russell Martin has proven to be another worthy gamble from Huntington as he's continued to be top tier defensive catcher. Surrounding him are above average gloves like Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker and Starling Marte that have provided the pitching staff with an NL leading defensive efficiency of 0.726 (rate of balls in play converted to outs).

The offensive side of the ball is an accurate mirror of the defense: one star and then solid, above-average contributors. In this case, it's Andrew McCutchen. He's developed into a five-tool superstar since the beginning of 2012 hitting .313/.386/.507 and stealing 24 bases to just 6 times caught. Beyond McCutchen, Starling Marte and Neil Walker are setting the table nicely in the top two slots in the batting order and Pedro Alvarez is displaying his power potential with an NL leading 28 bombs so far. The bottom four in the lineup is the most serious weakness for the Pirates and should have been addressed at the trading deadline, ideally. With little help on the horizon, look for the Pirates to ship out for power hitting right fielder or first baseman through waivers.

Oakland Athletics (67-50)

Just another ragtag bunch of A's sneaking their way into the playoff picture. This time, it's harder to peg the source of their success. They've had decent starting pitching, good relief help and an unorthodox but not outstanding offense. Like the Pirates, much of their success has stemmed from an incredible ability to turn hits into outs.

Oakland's defensive efficiency sits at .730, making them the only unit better than Pittsburgh at preventing baserunners. Gold Glove candidates Eric Sogard (2B) and Josh Donaldson (3B) provide top-notch defense flanking their below average (arguably misplaced) shortstop, Jed Lowrie. Coco Crisp, Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Reddick back them up to provide one of the premier defensive outfields in baseball - which is necessary in the spacious O.co Coliseum (yes, that's the actually name).

I mentioned earlier that Oakland has an unorthodox offense. I don't mean they've invented a new way to score, but that they're getting great hitting from positions that normally lack any type of significant production, namely second base, shortstop and third base. Unfortunately for the A's, they haven't been able to produce at offense-first positions like first base, designated hitter and right field.

Although the A's pulled out a win in the top of the ninth today (Aug 12), the team will have to fight to remain in the playoff race amid competition from Baltimore, Cleveland and Kansas City (can't believe I just typed that). The struggle will be as much their own doing as that of the competition. Their rotation is falling apart (I'm sure I'll touch on this on a later day) and their stars of the first half, Josh Donaldson, Jed Lowrie and Coco Crisp, have slowed down considerably since July.

Boston Red Sox (71-49)

I know nobody enjoys rooting for Boston, but this is a legitimately fun team to watch. And they're doing it the old-fashioned way, not with this pitching and defense crap. They're mashing.

David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia are all hitting like stars they've been in the past. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes have provided some extra pop towards the end of the batting order. Stephen Drew and Shane Victorino have done the impossible and stayed healthy enough to contribute their own above-average production. This is as complete a lineup, top to bottom, as you'll see in baseball.

This offense shouldn't have surprised a single soul. What has surprised is the rotation. Despite an injured Clay Buchholz and ineffective Jon Lester, the rotation has been held together by Felix Doubront and, back from the dead, John Lackey. With Ryan Dempster and Lester behind those two, the rotation is serviceable enough to keep most games within reach of Papi and co. However, the addition of Jake Peavy is massive for this club. Now instead of running promising young arms Allen Webster and Brandon Workman out their to see if they can make it, they have a bona fide mid-rotation horse to count on every fifth day.

Another key factor for Boston is their bullpen. Like Oakland and Pittsburgh, it's been absolutely stellar. The only reason I focus a paragraph on it for Boston is because it's been unexpected. Koji Uehara has been among the best closers in baseball with Craig Breslow and Jiunichi Tazawa doing nice set up work. Unfortunately for Boston, they now have a DL's worth of equally talented pitchers: Andrew Bailey, Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Miller and Matt Thornton. The depth of this 'pen could be a major factor in how the rest of the season shakes out and will be worth keeping an eye on.

Miguel Gonzalez is a Robot

Take a look at Orioles' starting pitcher Miguel Gonzalez' 2012 stat line:

Through essentially the same amount of innings, he allowed essentially the same amount of hits (92 vs 94), essentially the same amount of homers (13 vs 14), essentially the same amount of walks (34 vs 35), essentially the same amount of strikeouts (77 vs 79).

But he's only hit two batters instead of five last season. So he's got that going for him.

The Marlins Are Building Something... Again.

The Miami Marlins have been really easy for me to ignore for most of the 2013 season.
The owner, Jeffrey Loria, executed a shameless firesale of just about every contract on their books (Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle etc.) less than a season after being handed a new publicly funded stadium. As a result, the team was left with essentially just Giancarlo Stanton, Ricky Nolasco, Logan Morrison (if that can be counted as a positive), Juan Pierre's ghost and nothing beyond that.

Even from the group remaining, Nolasco - the only player making over $2.75 million - has since been shipped off for spare parts. However, while the business practices are cringe-worthy and ensure a minimal fanbase, the baseball operations have somehow pieced together a promising future.

Any conversation about Miami's future starts with Giancarlo Stanton. He's the face of the franchise and a legit middle of the order bat with elite power at the age of 23. This is the cornerstone team president Larry Beinfest should be building the team around. Actually, if it were up to Beinfest, I'm sure Stanton would already have a Longoria-esque extension into his 30's, unfortunately, that's not how Loria rolls.

Beyond Stanton, they're building from the ground up. The most encouraging evidence of Beinfest & Co's skill in this regard is the current starting rotation. 20 year old Jose Fernandez has emerged as one of the better pitchers in the National League in his freshman campaign and there's really no reason he can't be the team's #1 starter for years to come. Beyond Fernandez, Miami boasts a trio of 22 or 23 year old righties acquired for their veterans (see paragraph one) in Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob Turner and Henderson Alvarez who all have been lauded as prospects, have tremendous stuff and despite mediocre peripherals have had real success in 2013. Some combo of these three and highly rated left-hand starting prospects Andrew Heaney and Justin Nicolino could form one of the best young rotations by the end of next season.

The offense isn't quite as easy to be optimistic about. In fact, it's historically bad this season. On the bright side, the Marlins actually boast a stable of young outfielders that rival that rotation of theirs. Led by Giancarlo, center and left field will be up for grabs between three top prospects. Christian Yelich was just called up today and is the favorite to grab one of the spots; he's regarded as one of the sweetest swings in the minors and profiles as a high-average, medium-power bat somewhere on the spectrum between James Loney and Joe Mauer.  Jake Marisnick was also called up today along with Yelich and came over in the same deal with Nicolino and Alvarez from Toronto. Marisnick is a super athlete with all five tools who is just now putting it all together in the minors for the first time. He could be a special center fielder or a toolsy fourth outfielder. The final competitor here is Marcell Ozuna. Just 22, he's spent most of this season in the majors, collecting 287 plate appearances. He started off hot, showing off some of his power/speed combo but also proving he isn't quite ready yet and was sent down to AA in place of Yelich. Even if one of these players is traded (Stanton) or doesn't pan out (the other three) the Marlins should have a young talented outfield in the years to come, if not an exciting middle of the order.

Well, it takes more to win than a rotation and an outfield, and therein lies Miami's problem to solve over the next year or so. There's a chance Morrison, Derek Dietrich, Adeiny Hechavarria or Rob Brantly can establish themselves in the infield, but realistically, maybe one will stick around. The Marlins nabbed advanced college third baseman Colin Moran in the June draft and could rise quickly through system to contribute at the hot corner eventually. But, it looks like Larry Beinfest is going to have to call on some more magic to fill in the rest of the infield. Regardless, he'll have a few years to work on the weakness.

The Marlins are quietly collecting the talent for another run at the World Series and while any success is a ways away, it might be closer than we think. So keep ignoring Miami, but it may not be too long before they force their way back into our collective consciousness.

What Do The Twins Have In Plouffe?

At this point in the season, I'm just looking for any small positives. Mostly, those have been generated by the minor league system. However, there are a few minor bright spots on the major league roster as well. Ironic that the major leaguers are more minor reasons for optimism, but I digress. Oswaldo Arcia has been just what we expected, Aaron Hicks has shown flashes of excellence and continues to improve, Mauer has stayed healthy and Sam Deduno and Brian Dozier have developed into serviceable major leaguers. The player who interests me today, however, is Trevor Plouffe.

I've talked about Plouffe before, but he's been a mystery for most of his career. A mystery to me, at least. He came up through the minors as a  light hitting shortstop -- I expected a good defensive utility guy. In 2011 he crushed AAA pitching -- I thought he could be a four corner (1B, 3B, RF and LF) right handed bat off the bench. Then between 2012 and 2013 he grabbed a hold of third base. Perhaps that language is a bit strong as he hasn't had much competition to fend off, coming in the form of Jamey Carroll and Eduardo Escobar.

But here we are with Trevor Plouffe having a firm grip on third base and as the top right-handed bat in the lineup (with Willingham hitting the DL this past weekend). In fact, he's been the third best hitter on the Twins according to wOBA (a fairly complete measure of offensive contribution) behind just Mauer and Arcia. He's cut his strikeout rate to an above average  16.3% clip which bodes well for his batting average. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he ended the season at or above .270, which for the record, is actually very good (league average is .254). Unfortunately Plouffe still doesn't walk much at all but makes up for it with above average power. His power has dropped off since his thumb contusion in July of 2012. However, he still boasts 25 double and 20 homer power.

His offensive game is pretty clearly Plouffe's strength with his third base defense lagging behind. He just doesn't have a quick first step and his arm is erratic. Then again, JJ Hardy didn't necessarily have a great first step and still played a mean defensive shortstop. And maybe he can learn to make the throw across the diamond more consistently. The tools are there to become a decent third baseman but as of now he's below average at the position.

Combined, his above average offensive profile and below average defensive profile grades Trevor out to be a solid-average third baseman with the potential to improve from there. Unfortunately, he won't have much time to make these improvements as Miguel Sano is flying up the minor leagues with a 2014 ETA and will almost certainly supplant Plouffe at third, leaving him to either find a new position or multiple as a super-utility, power-hitting, right-handed bat. Regardless of exactly where he ends up, he'll be a valuable piece for the Twins until he reaches free agency 2018.

2013 Draft Notes

I don't have a ton to say about the MLB draft tonight; other than that I'm quite excited. But I'll throw out a few observations and thoughts before the action takes place.

-The Twins will pick 4th overall and don't have their next selection until #43. My understanding is that the first two rounds will be tonight, with the draft resuming Friday afternoon.

-Second rounders will become more valuable under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, which greatly reduces the number of compensation picks for free agents. Last season, the second round started with pick #61. This year it begins at #40.

-As far as the Twins go, I feel like they're in a good position. Worst case scenario, in which Appel, Gray and Bryant are taken, they will be able to grab Kohl Stewart. Stewart has the highest upside of any pitcher in this draft and has been compared to former High School Texas righties Jameson Taillon and Josh Beckett. Stewart has a mid-90's fastball that can reach 98 to go along with a good arsenal of secondary pitches. Those secondary pitches, especially showing he can spin a breaking ball and control a changeup, are huge for a young pitcher. However, there's a decent chance that Houston goes off the board and picks Colin Moran with the #1 pick, likely leaving Minnesota with Jonathan Gray (more likely) or Mark Appel (less likely). Either pitcher would be a great addition to the minor league system and fit in perfectly with the Twins aim to compete in 2015. However, both have certain issues that could limit their ceiling to big league #2 starters.

-For the record, my Twins' wish list looks like this:

1. Mark Appel: Very mature product. He could be contributing by this time next year.
2. Kris Bryant: He's certainly riskier, but if things click he could be another masher to pair with Sano in a couple years.
3. Jon Gray: Deadly fastball/slider combo but that won't be enough. A few stresses have me and Andy concerned for his future, but he's a true top talent.
4. Kohl Stewart: I've said enough. Super high upside, but comes with all the risks of a high school pitcher; which is to say ALL OF THE RISK.
5. Braden Shipley: College righty with limited upside but a good fastball and some feel for pitching. This basically just shows the huge drop-off of talent after #4.

So I do think the Twins are in a great position to pick a future star. In my opinion, the only other two players I could see realistically having star potential are Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier. Both are Georgia HS outfielders (ahem, Buxton, ahem) and are extremely talented. In fact, if the Twins system wasn't so stacked in outfielders with Hicks, Arcia, Buxton and potentially Sano and Rosario, I would be excited about drafting either of these guys. That said, I hate drafting for need and not best player available; so if the Twins feel they're worth it, then go for it. However, tie goes to the desperate need for pitching.

-On that note, the Twins front office has come out and said that they'll be aggressively targeting pitchers with their top ten picks.

-At #43, it will be interesting to see if the Twins select MN HS outfielder Ryan Boldt or U of MN LHP Tom Windle. Both are projected to go in that range and obviously have Minnesota ties. Boldt should be signable at that position, but is certainly riskier.

-Just talking to Andy last night, I compared  Colin Moran to a third base version of Dustin Ackley. Both were great hitters and UNC, but neither showed much of any secondary skills in the way of power, speed or defense. Putting that much pressure on a bat can be dangerous. The other comp I made  was between Ryne Stanek and Twins' prospect Alex Meyer. Both are lanky, two-pitch monsters with questions for their future role. Andy pointed out that Stanek has a better track record in college, which is true.

-Here's my caveat for today and the rest of the weekend: I have no clue what I'm talking about. I haven't seen any of these players (maybe a few on TV) and even if I had I'm not a scout. Everything you read here is an amalgamation of the great information provided by Baseball America, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, Perfect Game and other online resources. I'll weigh different sources differently, usually giving the most to Jim Callis and Keith Law in this arena.

Have a great MLB Draft Day and I'll be back with 24 hours to write about tonight's picks.

Caleb Thielbar Promoted to the Twins

There's a lot I love about baseball: the drama and tension of each battle, the power and rewards of statistics and the promise of raw, youthful talent. But, most fascinating are the individual stories. Some are destined for greatness, some take time to reach their potential and others overcome nearly insurmountable obstacles to make the big leagues. If you can dream up a scenario, it's probably resulted in a major league player. This is obviously inspiring and it adds a feeling of wonder to each at-bat.

The Twins called up Caleb Thielbar early this afternoon; his story is as worthy of recount as any other in the professional circuit.

Thielbar was born in 1987 in Northfield, Minnesota; a town boasting a population of about 20,000 people and  known for having two small liberal arts colleges and a cereal factory. The town is not, in fact, known for producing ballplayers: Thielbar is the first professional baseballer from his high school.

Against some odds, I suppose, he was able to secure a spot on the South Dakota State team. In three seasons, the lefty produced a 5.76 ERA in the Summit League. The Milwaukee Brewers still saw worth the small investment to nab Thielbar in the 18th round of the 2009 MLB entry draft. You might pick up on an interesting thread here, as I'll note that SDSU hadn't produced a major league since Vean Gregg who was signed 1909. Side note, what kind of name is Vean?

After draft day, the Brewers failed to show a ton of faith in Caleb. He spent the second half of 2009 and the first half of 2010 producing quite well in Rookie ball. However, when he was called up to A-ball in mid-2010 and seemingly struggled, (5.60 ERA in 30 relief appearances) the Brewers had seen enough to cut him. Looking back, the decision is easy to question as he posted a 3.07 K/BB ratio and being a lefty makes him intrinsically valuable.

Nevertheless, Thielbar was left with the St. Paul Saints as his best option. He played in for his hometown Indy ball team for the entirety of the league's season, becoming one of their top relievers.

After the Saints season came to a close, the Minnesota Twins came knocking to give him a one-week audition. Thielbar seized the opportunity, hurling 7.1 innings of walkless and nearly hitless (one hit allowed) baseball. The performance earned him another audition in spring training, which landed him with the Twins' Hi-A affiliate to begin the 2012 season.

Over the next 17 months, Caleb has dominated his way up the minors and earned a promotion back into his home state. But, this time, I think he's grateful to be in Minneapolis rather than St. Paul.

It's journey's like these that keep baseball interesting. The possibility that Caleb Thielbar could be facing Prince Fielder this weekend is incredibly special and I'll leave it at that.

(Side note: Pedro Hernandez' demotion led to Caleb's promotion; the transaction has resulted in an open spot in the rotation. Kyle Gibson and PJ Walters are the most likely candidates to replace him.)

Minnesota Twins Minor League Update - Hitters

We're a little more than a month into the minor league season and already there's been a ton of action. The 'stars' of the system have outperformed everybody's expectations and are attracting national attention. There have also been plenty of breakout performances but very few disappointing ones. The Twins organization is so stacked with young talent I'm going to have to break this into two posts. The first will be a look at the hitters that are garnering buzz.

The headliners of the system are Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano and both have far exceeded even the most optimistic projections.