Draft Preview: Part Deux

The pervading belief going into the 2012 MLB Draft is that it's a relatively weak draft class with little of the top-flight talent seen in recent years (i.e. Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and David Price). This doesn't bode well for a team picking at the top of the draft, like the Minnesota Twins at #2 overall. I would like to throw in the qualifier that there is simply little obvious top-flight talent. There is a mess of about 6 players that occupy the top of most draft boards and each have a shot at being a worthy choice #2 pick in any draft, though they do all have their shortcomings (significant in some cases). My partner-in-crime, Andy Johnson, wrote a summary of three of the top prospects in this years draft including the consensus top two in Byron Buxton and Mark Appell as well his man-crush Mike Zunino. Here are a few other options the Twins will have with their first choice:

Carlos Correa: It's difficult to emphasize how important age is for a potential draftee. Rany Jazayerli recently did a study that showed that, on average, the youngest quintile of a draft class is expected to significantly outperform their older counterparts.  Especially for high school hitters, which is relevant for Correa as he is a 17-year old shortstop fresh out of Puerto Rican high-school (or their equivalent). So Carlos has that going for him - which is nice.

Aside from his young age, Carlos has the ability to play shortstop, absurd hitting potential and boasts a projectable, big body at 6'4" 190 lbs. While he may outgrow his position and be forced to move to third, his bat could play at any position. Scouts love his athleticism and all-around hitting talent and rave about his plus power potential. Correa has been shooting up big boards in the last month topping out at #1 on Kevin Goldstein's list for Baseball Prospectus and #2 overall for Keith Law. The 'low man on the totem pole' on Correa is Baseball America who have him rated at #6 overall. The youngin' has the potential to be the best player to come out of this year's draft, but as a 17-year old, he will take a long time to develop and carries a lot of risk.

Kevin Gausman: I'm not great at this, but I'm like 95% sure that Gausman means 'man who throws gas'. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I'll run with it. Gausman does indeed throw gas; his fastball, sitting in the mid-90's and occasionally hitting 99, can match anyone in the draft class. He also throws a mean change-up that Law puts a 60 on (20-80 scale). Two plus pitches to go along with a 6'4" frame is a nice starter kit for a future top-of-the-rotation pitcher. He needs to find more consistency with a breaking ball, although his slider does flash plus potential.

Until recently, the LSU product was viewed as the third best college starting pitcher in the draft, behind Mark Appell and Kyle Zimmer. However, with Appell as the favorite to go 1.1 and Zimmer falling due to injury Gausman could very well be the best available option at #2.

Lucas Giolito: Hands down the pitcher with the most upside in draft, Giolito is the biggest wildcard in the draft. Entering the season, most experts had him #1 on their draft boards and a likely target for the Twins at #2. However, he missed most of his high school season with a sore elbow, scaring many teams away from spending a top pick on him. Others aren't convinced the injury is serious in the long-term, as an MRI revealed no structural damage and doctor's gave him a clean bill of health. Although it's easy to understand why teams will be wary with him as so many young pitchers are missing entire years with elbow injuries and soreness like this cannot be totally ignored.

Before the injury, Giolito, 6'6" 230 lbs, hit 100 mph with his fastball, showed a hammer curve in the mid-80's and solid change-up. Pretty much a perfect package coming out of high school. He's an interesting case, if he was picked by Houston at 1.1 nobody would say it was reach. Conversely nobody would be shocked if he wasn't drafted at all based on signability concerns (he probably wants a ton of $$$).


So what should the Twins do?

I can't say I have a favorite this year. I just hope the Twins go with whoever is the best available player on their draft board. Some players would get me more excited than others, like Buxton, Correa, Giolito or Appell. But, I don't think there really is a wrong pick to be made here. And there are plenty of good options. The college guys are the least risky, will be able to make an impact by the beginning of 2014 and all fit perfectly with the current needs of the major league team. The downside is their upside is limited as none project as elite players.

The high-school guys on the other hand all have elite potential but come with some serious risk. Buxton might be the safest of the group. His elite speed and great arm give him the tools to play a great center field for years to come, though his hitting ability is very raw. He's kind of like a rich man's Aaron Hicks (for you Twins fans out there). All the tools are there, but he'll have to develop his bat to stick in the majors. If Buxton is taken #1 overall, then Correa is likely to be in the mix for the Twins (see below), he recently came into MN for his second private workout with the club, so they are clearly interested. Giolito, even though I'd love him, is probably too risky based on his injury and possible money demands. The Twins will probably pass on him and take somebody with fewer question marks.





All in all, from what I've read, I believe the Twins will take Byron Buxton with their first pick. In that scenario, everyone in Minnesota should be very excited. However, Houston has yet to commit to a guy at 1.1, so there is the possibility the Twins won't even get a shot at Buxton. In this case, I think it comes down to Appell and Correa, and I think they go with Appell. This choice would be more up for a debate. Our very own Andy Johnson is not a huge fan and he isn't alone.

Regardless of which player they pick, I trust the Twins scouting staff to do a good job and net a future big leaguer on Monday and I'm excited to see what happens.



UPDATE 5:26 PM: ESPN's Jim Bowden tweeted:

Still nothing is set in stone, so this obviously subject to change, but Bowden is reasonably reliable source of information so it counts for something. If Appell is the #1 selection, Byron Buxton is the expected choice at #2. Although there is an outside chance at Carlos Correa or Kevin Gausman.

Draft Preview: Part One

The Twins in 2011 played so poorly, they have the opportunity to select one of the top amateur players on Monday.  For a team that had a deep farm system, young players on the rise and two of the top hitters in the AL, they fell and fell fast.  Next week can be a time for GM Terry Ryan and Scouting Director Deron Johnson to get pieces to put the Twins back at the top.  I have three players who I think are candidates for the Twins who pick at number two in the Rule IV draft.

Mark Appel: Standing at 6-foot-5 and 215 pounds, Appel has the body scouts drool over.  At 215 he has room to gain weight also.  His fastball is typically in the mid 90s and can get up to 99.  His offspeed is not as developed as some would like but with maturity and the need for it in pro ball I think it can come along just fine.  He has had a solid career at Stanford and pitched in the Pac 12 which is no easy feat.  I think a good comparison is Gerritt Cole.  I have never been a big fan of Cole because he was never a dominating college pitcher, like Strasburg.  I have said before that Appel is like Cole 2.0 so we’ll have to see how that shakes out.  Similar stuff and both have shown improvements.  Seeing video of him, I like his mechanics and his arm moves very free and easy with the ball exploding out of his hand.  I’ve read he has a very good work ethic but at times can be too soft and not have a killer attitude out on the mound.

Byron Buxton: Baseball America said Buxton has drawn comparisons to Matt Kemp, B.J. Upton and Justin Upton.  That is a very high ceiling.  In watching scouting videos, it’s hard to tell much about his defense in center but scouts say he can cover lots of ground.  His arm is well above average.  I read he struck out 18 batters in a high school game while topping at 97 mph.  Perfect Game has his 60 at 6.57 which is also well above the Major League average of 6.9.  The bat is what get scouts giddy.  He starts with an open stance and has very calm mechanics.  His hands get to the ball well and the ball comes off scorching.  Some don’t see the power in the swing and he has only hit two home runs this spring.  In a showcase at Wrigley Field though, he finished second in the home run derby and his swing had lots of loft which could produce 15-20 dingers in the future. 

Mike Zunino: In 1993, the Twins missed out on one of the best catchers my generation grew up watching in Jason Varitek.  This year they have a shot at a Zunino who has been compared to Varitek.  His tools project above average as far as power and hitting goes.  He could be a .280 guy with 20+ homer power.  He combines that with good catching skills.  His receiving and blocking are more advanced than his throwing with some of his throws tailing to the second base side of second.  Recent college catchers with this much hype include Buster Posey and Matt Wieters and I think Zunino could be just as good as Posey and just a few ticks below Wieters.

What should the Twins do?
Obviously the Twins starting pitching is a joke.  Pavano and Liriano remain the only starters from opening day in the rotation with Blackburn on the DL.  Many see the Twins needing a college arm because of the lack of depth in the starting pitching.  After last years large depth in arms (Cole, Hultzen, Bauer, Jungmann and Bradley were all first round college arms in the top 15 picks) this year lacks in a college pitcher who could turn into a for sure ace or number two. 

I believe the Twins are best off with Zunino.  A catcher who has the skills he possesses only comes around every now and again.  He is a leader on the field and already is calling his own games with a pitching staff who will all go pro within the next two years.  With this maturity behind the dish, he can blow through the Twins system very quickly and help make the last six years of a $184 million deal with Mauer look better than the first year and a half.  Mauer hit 28 home runs in 2009 and he said his hands felt very fresh after not catching the first month of the season.  I think with Zunino, Mauer can move to first full-time (and I’m assuming Morneau is no longer in a Twins uniform) and become an even better hitter than he already is and his body will not be beat up by the end of the contract (when he will be 35). 

Buxton is my second favorite for the Twins.  I think he can bring excitement to Target Field the way Matt Kemp brings energy to Dodger Stadium and that will rejuvenate a fan base eager for a winning baseball team.

Tommy John Follow-up

If you haven't yet, check out Andy's piece on Tommy John surgery. He got into all sorts of interesting stuff about the history, procedure and prognosis of the surgery. However, not only does he know all about it, he's personally been through it. So I thought it would be interesting to do a follow-up where we could get his story and some more of the juicy details. I found his answers insightful, hopefully you do too. Also, if you have any questions of your own, post them in the comments and I'm sure he can answer them.

When did the first signs of an elbow injury manifest and what happened between then and the surgery?

Andy: The date of surgery was August 2, 2011.  I first told the coaches it hurt in March of 2011 and tried to rehab it so I could pitch the last third or fourth of the season.  After being shut down for 2 weeks, my elbow still hurt.  After 6 weeks, my elbow felt better and I started a throwing program but after about a month of long tossing, the pain came back.   I went and saw another elbow specialist to get another opinion because the first doctor I saw said I was just fine.  The second doc said I would probably need surgery if I kept having the pain.  Then we made an appointment with one of the White Sox team surgeons.  He has done operations on Carlos Quentin and Joakim Noah just to name a couple.  He took a look at my MRI and said there was no tear, but that he thought the ligament was so stretched out, it wouldn’t go back to normal.  It is sort of like a pair of shorts that lose their elasticity.  He also told me 50% of TJ surgeries these days don’t have a torn UCL.  

More after the jump-